Trump lacks staying power

Jacob Tomlinson

With the ridiculous amount of Republicans that are running for the party’s nomination for president, many Americans most likely find themselves confused, excited and probably terrified.

 If you take a look at early polls for the Republican nomination, you’ll find that businessman Donald Trump can be found leading many of them. As a matter of fact, many polls show Trump leading by double digits.

 Not only do the polls show him ahead, but at the rallies he holds, thousands and thousands of people show up to hear him speak. As an example, back in August, a rally that Trump held had to be moved to a larger venue to accommodate the roughly 40,000 people that had RSVP’d, according to the Trump campaign.

 But, with all the hype and craze over this eccentric businessman, can Trump really win the Republican nomination?

 I’m an extremely strong believer that Trump cannot win the nomination.

 First, to look at polls this early means next to nothing. At this point in the race, Trump’s lead is a phantom one, meaning that the polls aren’t accurately predicting what voter’s think of each candidate. Certainly, at this point in the race, many voters probably are not really paying attention to the candidates.

 To add to this point, Trump’s poll numbers aren’t that great. According to Tom McCarthy of The Guardian, “In the first 13 Republican primary and caucus elections in 2012, the winner garnered an average of 41.8 percent of the vote.” Trump, however, has only been polling around 25 percent, which is certainly not enough to be the Republican nominee.

 A counter-argument could of course be made that Trump may win Iowa or even New Hampshire and voters could think that Trump is a real contender, thus making more citizens vote for him. However, seeing as Trump doesn’t have the backing of a large amount of the Republican Party to attract conventional voters, I think this is a pretty poor counter-argument to make.

 As Iowa nears, I think that we will see a dramatic shift in the polls. Only then will the polls more accurately depict how likely voters feel about each Republican candidate.

 Lastly, Trump doesn’t have the support from elected officials within the Republican Party, or the establishment for that matter. In a book titled “The Party Decides,” it was found that in presidential nomination races, endorsements matter.

 In fact, they are very important. They matter so much that having the right endorsements can impact the nomination by way of promoting the candidate to voters, who ultimately matter the most in elections.

 Trump doesn’t have the endorsements that other candidates do; primarily, I think, because of his unpredictability. Most people have no idea what the next word is that will come out of his mouth. On top of that, what does come out of his mouth is not always the nicest or most appropriate for someone who is running for President of the United States.

 So, will Trump be the Republican nominee for president? I’m inclined to think he won’t even come close.